Adoption of Electric Vehicle in the Netherlands \u2013 A Stated Choice Experiment

摘要

In this paper, we apply a dynamic innovation diffusion framework to model adoption of full electric vehicles where we explicitly distinguish three major phases of adoption: introduction, growth and maturity. We combine this approach with an SP study to elicit individual preferences for conventional, hybrid and full electric vehicles. We apply a nested logit model to estimate the preferences for EVs based on the total costs of ownership approach that includes monetary and non-monetary costs of owing a vehicle. With negative estimates of WTP for hybrid vehicles (of about \u20ac900 on a yearly basis), our results suggest abolishment of subsidization of hybrid vehicles as they potentially crowd out EV adoption. Besides, EVs need to be subsidized on average at \u20ac2,000 per year, and this amount is decreasing in the process of vehicle adoption. Time costs associated with rapid charging are a substantial hindrance to EV adoption with average value of time of \u20ac63 per hour, increasing for each subsequent consumer segment from \u20ac48 to \u20ac122 per hour. Environmental costs of CO2 reductions are valued far above the market average at \u20ac160 per ton, but determine EV choices only at a later stage of adoption. Finally, towing potential is valued on average at \u20ac540 per year and it is about the same for all consumer segments throughout the adoption phases. Policy implications are discussed involving a mix of structural and monetary incentives.